Appendix G – Transportation White Paper: The Need for a Multimodal NCC Program

Source: "Visualizing Density," Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 2007

Employment Constraints

If the jobs of residents in the corridor were all located in downtown San Diego and Sorrento Mesa, a large percentage of commuters might be able to take advantage of rail service. However, this is not the case; in 2008 only 5.2% of all jobs in the region were located in downtown San Diego, and only 5.1% of regional jobs were located in Sorrento Mesa. The share of the region's jobs in both these job centers is expected to decline by 2030, and further by 2050.¹⁵ When commuters leave the NCC, they travel to jobs that are scattered throughout the region, often in auto-dependent locations with an abundance of free parking.

As the trend toward dispersed employment continues through 2050, it is exacerbated by several contributing factors (taken from Appendix C):

• Downtown San Diego is not the largest employment center in the region
• There is no single dominant employment center in the region
• No employment center in the region will increase its regional employment share by more than two percent between 2008 and 2050
• The four largest employment centers in the region (University City, Kearny Mesa, downtown San Diego, and Sorrento Mesa/Mira Mesa) are all projected to lose regional employment share through 2050

Appendix C reveals the degree of regional dispersal of employment projected through 2050. The land-use patterns in the vast majority of these employment communities are characterized by low-density and/or business park development with large amounts of free parking and limited pedestrian environments. The absence of large, concentrated, and growing employment centers–and the ongoing trend of employment dispersal–highlight the challenge of providing efficient transit service for commute trips in the NCC area.

Trip Characteristic Constraints

As noted in Section 2, a significant portion of trips in the NCC are internal to the corridor, and many of these trips are often only a few miles in length–to include local errands and rides to work or school. These types of trips are difficult to capture with transit in all but the densest areas, since the access and waiting times for buses generally cannot compete with the automobile for such short distances, particularly in the North Coast Corridor where most residents have a car available to make the trip. In addition, the tendency of travelers to "link" several local trips into a single voyage–such as leaving work, buying groceries, and picking up children from school–greatly multiplies the time advantages of driving over transit. Finally, many of these short local trips involve shopping, errands, or other cargo-intensive purposes that are not well suited for transit. Taken together, these factors result in a local population that generally does not choose the bus over driving.

Rail Capacity Constraints

With four rail operators sharing the LOSSAN corridor, passenger rail services along the corridor, including the NCC segments, are constrained by infrastructure that is significantly undersized for the volumes of traffic it accommodates. Fifty-one percent of the existing rail corridor between San Clemente and downtown San Diego consists of the single-track railway. These single-track sections greatly constrain the movement of trains through the corridor as trains must stop and wait at scheduled meets to allow for passing. Not only do these scheduled meets increase trip time for travelers, if one train experiences an unscheduled delay, but it also ripples throughout the corridor, affecting the schedules and on-time performance of other trains on the tracks. The result is relatively poor and unpredictable on-time performance on the LOSSAN rail corridor, particularly for Amtrak services. Poor and unpredictable on-time performance deters people from choosing rail for trips when it would otherwise be an acceptable option.

The single-track sections also limit the number of trains that can use the tracks at any given time, capping passenger capacity in the corridor. COASTER service operates every 30 to 45 minutes in the peak-period peak direction, while Amtrak operates approximately hourly in the peak-period peak direction. With the addition of Metrolink and periodic BNSF freight service, the number of train trips in the corridor is near capacity under current track conditions. The inability to increase service frequency on passenger rail reduces the attractiveness of rail as a viable transportation alternative in the NCC for many trips that require greater flexibility in travel-time choices. It also constrains the economic growth of freight rail service.

SANDAG has projected that the planned capital improvements and more frequent service on the LOSSAN corridor will increase daily person-carrying capacity from approximately 18,000 per day to as high as 47,000 per day.¹⁶ This would more than double the current capacity of the line and, assuming equal distribution of rail ridership throughout the day, is equivalent to two freeway lanes of traffic.¹⁷ This level of LOSSAN capacity exceeds the current and forecasted 2050 demand on the rail corridor, meaning that everyone who is expected to travel by rail in the NCC will be accommodated with extra capacity to spare. However, due to the unique and varied characteristics of trips and travelers in the corridor (trip purpose, length, origin/destination, etc.), rail service–even with this excess capacity– simply will not be able to address all trip needs. Nearly all of these rail-unsuitable trips must, therefore, be accommodated on the highway and roadway system in the corridor.

Rail Access Constraints

Even if the rail system could capture more trip types in the NCC, these new riders would still need to be able to access the stations. The area's low-density land-use patterns mean that relatively few people are within an efficient walk, bike and transit distance to COASTER stations, which means that most passengers access LOSSAN rail stations in the NCC by private automobile. During the morning peak period, on average 63% of passengers boarding the COASTER at stations within the NCC drive alone and park at one of the stations. Combined with those who carpooled or were dropped off, 80% of NCC COASTER commuters arrive at the stations by car.¹⁸ Relatively few passengers walk, bike, or take local transit buses to the stations, even though seventeen local bus routes connect to them. To change this, corridor land uses would need to become much more transit-friendly (concentrated, higher density development, with mixed uses and widespread pedestrian facilities) to achieve a significant shift in the way that users access to rail. However, most of the corridor is already built out–and existing land-use policies in the Local Coastal Program (LCP) support the current development patterns.

Assuming the corridor does not undergo a wholesale redevelopment and most users continue to access rail by driving, a significant increase in ridership would require similar increases in the parking capacities at rail stations. Table 6 shows the current COASTER parking supply, reflecting approximately 2,700 parking spaces at NCC stations. On average, however, all of the COASTER station parking lots except Oceanside are at or exceed, capacity by 8:00 a.m.¹⁹ Further gains in ridership will require the construction of new, multi-level parking structures with thousands of parking spaces, rather than the surface parking lots with hundreds of spaces currently seen in the rest of the corridor. This would mean thousands of additional vehicles accessing parking via local streets, with significant implications for coastal communities and access, as well as possible conflicts with LCPs.

Table 6: COASTER Station Parking and Feeder-Bus Service

Local/Feeder Bus Constraints

Another way to provide increased access to NCC rail stations could be through enhancement of the existing feeder-bus services. Appendix A shows the existing bus routes that serve NCC COASTER stations. Taken together, these routes cover most of the major arterials and activity centers in the corridor, leaving few viable options for new direct feeder bus routes. However, due to the low-density, suburban development that pervades the NCC, only 51% of households are within one half-mile of a bus stop, compared to 66% of households across the region and 73% in the SANDAG-defined urbanized area.²⁰ This demonstrates the considerable difficulty of providing transit service in suburban areas, where residences are spread out and automobile travel has a considerable advantage.

The existing local bus services currently operate at low to moderate frequencies, reflecting the relatively moderate ridership demand typical of low-density areas (compared to the denser central core areas). While improved frequencies would likely attract more riders, any increases in ridership (and accompanying fares) would not offset the increases in costs associated with providing more service. The result is likely to be that operating subsidies would increase at a faster rate than ridership. These increased subsidies would need to come from somewhere, and given the limited public operating funding available to transit agencies, the likely place would be through the elimination of services elsewhere in the region. Because funding is scarce, regional decision-makers must make prudent decisions on where and how to provide transit service that balances access with cost-effective returns on investment to ensure that the transit system is sustainable over time. Local bus service is planned on a short-term basis in order to remain flexible to changes in funding and ridership, and while improvements in local bus transit services are anticipated in the NCC over the next forty years, there will always be limits on the feasibility of investment.

In evaluating the benefits of enhancing bus service in the NCC, it is also important to consider the likelihood that users will use the enhanced services to make their trips. Even if the region invested extremely heavily in buses to provide high-frequency coverage in every area of the corridor, the decision on whether to use transit ultimately is up to the individual traveler. By definition, a feeder bus requires the passenger to transfer between bus and rail during their trip, adding more time and an extra logistical layer to the transit experience relative to driving. A comprehensive survey of regional residents in 2000 confirmed the long-held belief among transportation experts that this "transfer penalty" is a significant barrier to transit use, especially among those who already have access to cars.²¹ Therefore it is unlikely that enhanced bus service, even if implemented to the maximum extent, will supplant the automobile as the mode of choice for the majority of NCC travelers.

BRT and Rapid Bus Constraints

The NCC currently does not have any BRT or Rapid Bus service. Implementation of both of these types of transit improvements is planned in the corridor over the next forty years. But like local bus service, extensive investment in BRT and/or Rapid Bus is constrained by the challenging topography and circuitous street network, low land use densities with few areas of concentrated populations, and limited funding. Successful BRT is wholly dependent on the implementation of the I-5 Managed Lanes since, by definition, BRT operates on a congestion-free "guideway" connecting concentrated areas of population and employment. The reverse-commute BRT planned for the I-5 Managed Lanes targets the peak-period commute trip between the high-density Mid City residential area in central San Diego and the Palomar Airport Road business park in the NCC. There are few other opportunities in the NCC to link dense population and employment centers. A BRT route between Oceanside and University City in San Diego (utilizing the I-5 Managed Lanes) that was evaluated during the development of the 2050 RTP failed to generate enough projected ridership from NCC residents to withstand the regional screening process for allocation of scarce resources.

Rapid Bus services operate along major arterials and can take advantage of signal and intersection priority treatments to speed up service. The 2050 RTP includes a Rapid Bus project for Coast Highway through the NCC. While some local bus routes can evolve into Rapid Bus services over time, to justify the capital and operating investment necessary to convert to a Rapid Bus, these routes require consistent activity and population concentrations along their routes, something that many major arterials in the NCC lack.

Funding Constraints

As discussed in Section 4, SANDAG needs to focus a large proportion of its transit investment in areas where transit services are most likely to succeed: the region's higher-density, mixed-use, pedestrian-friendly communities. However, while the NCC lacks many of the transit-supportive characteristics of some of the region's central core communities, the 2050 RTP still includes significant investment in LOSSAN rail, BRT, Rapid Bus, and local bus service in the corridor–a level of investment that, compared to the more urban core areas of the region, is somewhat disproportionate to its relatively lower ridership returns. Through the RTP, SANDAG has opted for a balanced system that provides transit access throughout the urban area, while simultaneously achieving regional and state goals. Tipping this balance to allocate additional regional transit resources to the NCC above what is identified in the RTP would come at the expense of regional transit ridership and other objectives.

In addition, providing one-time capital investment in transit infrastructure is only part of the solution for improving transit in a region or corridor: Transit also requires continuous operating funding to keep services going. Like every other city and region in the United States (and most of the world), transit operations are subsidized heavily by local, regional, and national governments. In the San Diego region, passenger fares cover less than half the cost of providing service (and much less for the COASTER), meaning that public subsidies pay for the majority of transit operations.²² This operating funding is scarce and diminishing, which greatly limits the region's ability to increase transit services; such scarcity requires difficult decisions to be made on how to allocate the region's resources, both to maximize returns on investment and to ensure fiscal sustainability. Through its RTP, SANDAG has adopted a prudent balance between expanding transit access and maintaining an efficient transit system that can be sustained in the future.

3.4 Implications of Deficiencies and Constraints

Deficiencies and constraints in the North Coast Corridor transportation network inhibit coastal access and economic growth by increasing travel times, decreasing reliability, and limiting travel choices. One likely result is that frustrated travelers may choose not to make discretionary trips to coastal resources.

While the vast majority of trips in the NCC will continue to be by auto through 2030 and beyond, transit will also continue to play a vital and growing role in the corridor's transportation network. Indeed, SANDAG's 2050 RTP includes major improvements to rail and bus transit facilities and services in the NCC to address some of the existing deficiencies and make transit more competitive with the automobile. The RTP's planned investments in cost-effective transit improvements, high occupancy highway improvements, and expansion of bicycle and pedestrian facilities in the NCC will address growing travel demand and improve access and mobility along San Diego's North Coast by focusing on moving people, not cars. This multi-modal transportation vision will ensure that ongoing access to coastal resources in the NCC will be preserved and enhanced.

4.0 The Regional Context for the NCC

The travel, access, and quality of life deficiencies in the NCC are addressed by many mobility solutions in SANDAG's 2050 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). The NCC, however, is only part of San Diego's coastal zone area and the San Diego region as a whole–a region that has a diverse array of transportation needs as well as many regulatory and fiscal constraints. This section outlines the numerous considerations that inform the regional decision-making process for the allocation of finite transportation resources.

4.1 RTP Goals and Objectives

The overarching policies that guide decisions in the region are published in the 2050 RTP and are summarized in Table 7.

Table 7: Goals of the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan

The RTP associates each broad goal with specific policy objectives to help focus the decision making process. To support the goal of a Prosperous Economy, one such policy objective is to "maximize the economic benefits of transportation investments."²³ With financial constraints limiting the number of transportation projects possible, this objective requires planners to select the projects that will yield the greatest benefit to the region as a whole; such balancing entails careful evaluation of the region's varied needs, along with a rational assessment of which projects are most likely to attract users.

4.2 Regional Growth

The population of the San Diego region is projected to grow significantly in the coming decades, which will spur related growth in housing, employment, and travel demand. Between 2008 and 2050, the region is expected to add 1.2 million residents–a 40% increase. Those new residents will drive demand for 388,000 new housing units (a 34% increase) and the creation of 501,000 new jobs (a 33% increase).²⁴ To accommodate this influx, SANDAG and the local governments have implemented a "Smart Growth" land-use strategy that seeks to increase population density, reduce vehicle miles traveled, and curb greenhouse gas emissions (see Section 4.5 below and Appendix B: Smart Growth Concept Map).

Travel demand, meanwhile, is growing at an even faster rate than the population. As discussed in Section 2.3, this trend indicates that people today are making more trips–and covering longer distances–than in the past. This regional trend holds in the NCC as well. By 2040, the number of daily trips in the NCC is expected to increase by approximately 30% (see Table 4).²⁵ This growth greatly outpaces the projected growth in population (20%), and it means that the strain on the transportation system will compound quickly without significant improvements.

4.3 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets

The state of California has set ambitious goals for greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction across its 18 metropolitan regions. In 2008 the California Air Resources Board set targets for the San Diego region that call for a 7% per-capita reduction in GHG emissions by 2020, and a 13% reduction by 2035.²⁶ Since a significant portion of GHG emissions come from transportation sources, these targets heavily influenced the composition of transportation projects and the design of the transportation network in the RTP.

To achieve the mandated GHG reductions, the region cannot continue growing with the same transportation and land-use patterns that dominated its past. SANDAG has determined that meeting the goals will require significant changes in travel behavior at the regional level, including both a reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as well as an increase in the share of trips taken on public transit. As financial constraints limit the number of transportation projects possible, the RTP, therefore, attempts to direct transportation investment to the areas where the greatest changes are possible.

4.4 Transit Mode Share Targets

Achieving SANDAG's GHG and VMT reduction goals will require an increase in the region's transit mode share, which is defined as the proportion of total trips taken on public transportation. The RTP specifies that the performance measure for transit mode share will be a weekday, peak-period commutes between home and work, as this is the type of trip for which behavior shifts to transit are the most likely.

The current transit mode share (again measured only by peak-period commute trips) is 2-3% for the region as a whole and just over 5% in the SANDAG-defined urban area. Two of the region's densest areas boast significantly higher numbers: Downtown San Diego has a 24% transit mode share, while the largely residential central core area (which includes Mid-City neighborhoods as well as parts of eastern San Diego) is just below 12%. All other parts of the region have transit mode shares well below 10%. For comparison, Table 8 lists the transit commute mode shares for selected U.S. cities; despite a handful of transit-heavy places, 17 of the nation's 30 largest cities have mode shares of 5% or less.²⁷

The RTP sets an ambitious goal of achieving a transit peak-period commute mode share of 10-15% in the urban area by 2050 (a 400% increase from current levels). Though it may be difficult to reach, this growth in transit mode share will be crucial to meeting GHG reduction targets. To achieve the urban area transit mode share goals, SANDAG divided the urban area into districts and established district-level mode share goals based largely on the viability of transit in each area. Transit investments were then allocated according to these goals, with the greatest investment going to areas where transit is most likely to succeed. Downtown San Diego and the central core, where density and land use patterns are most conducive to transit, are charged with raising their transit mode shares to 30+% and 20-25%, respectively. The goal for the NCC is 10-15%, which is ambitious given the area's limitations to transit effectiveness (discussed in Section 6) and would be a major improvement from the current share of 23%. Overall, decisions made at the regional level to implement regional goals and address state GHG reduction targets have resulted in a planned allocation of transit resources and projects throughout the region that focuses on investment in the densest urban areas.

Table 8: Transit Commute Mode Shares in Selected U.S. Cities

4.5 Land Use

The San Diego region, including the NCC, has historically low-density land-use patterns commonly associated with suburban sprawl. This spread-out style of development, while highly conducive to automobile travel, severely limits the potential viability of public transit. Transit is most effective and efficient in areas that contain a mix of high-density residential, commercial and employment development, concentrated populations, and urban design that promotes and encourages walking (most transit riders are pedestrians for some segment of their trips).

In recent years, SANDAG has shifted toward "Smart Growth" policies that encourage these transit-friendly development patterns. By promoting more trips by foot, bike, and transit, and correspondingly less reliance on the automobile, Smart Growth policy is expected to help make transit a more competitive travel mode. In 2008 the SANDAG Board of Directors adopted the Smart Growth Concept Map (Appendix B), which seeks to implement the goals established in the Regional Comprehensive Plan by identifying specific communities for Smart Growth development and coordinated transit investment. The map identifies 196 existing and future transit-supportive and Smart Growth opportunity areas in the region and is used by the board to prioritize transportation investments in the RTP and determine eligibility for funds from the Smart Growth Incentive Program. The NCC contains over 15 of these Smart Growth opportunity areas, the majority of which are located in community cores near COASTER and SPRINTER transit stations.

Local jurisdictions and SANDAG are working together to introduce Smart Growth development clusters into the NCC to accommodate future growth with higher-density, mixed-use development. However, the majority of the region's Smart Growth is planned to occur in places that have existing transit-supportive land-use patterns–primarily the central core area. Because most of the NCC features a low-density, suburban land use pattern, it is not where the region is focusing the bulk of its Smart Growth efforts and corresponding higher-intensity transit.

4.6 Funding

The 2050 RTP allocates over $112 billion to transportation in the next forty years, measured in 2010 dollars.²⁹ Of this sum, 50% is dedicated to transit-related uses, including the capital, operations, and maintenance. Another 41% is allocated to roads and highways. The remainder is earmarked for active transportation projects (bicycle and pedestrian), smart growth incentives, and other initiatives. Subtracting operations, maintenance, and administrative costs, a total of $26.6 billion are allocated for transit capital projects, $16.0 billion for the construction of Managed Lanes and other HOV facilities, and $5.4 billion for general-purpose highway projects.³⁰ These proportions are depicted in Figure 9. Because Managed Lanes support transit service and discourage single-occupancy travel, they represent a more efficient use of capital funds than general-purpose highway expansions; overall, 89% of the RTP's capital budget is allocated to transit or transit-supportive highway projects.

Despite the seemingly large size of these expenditures, the RTP represents an abridged list of the region's desired transportation projects. By law, the RTP must conform to a revenue-constrained scenario that makes reasonable assumptions about funding availability in the coming decades. In the planning process, however, SANDAG first devises a revenue constrained scenario: essentially a "wish list" of projects the region would accomplish if given unlimited resources. This unconstrained list is then pared to fit Source: SANDAG Staff, October 2011 available funding according to the ranked priorities of the projects.

To keep fares low enough to attract ridership, most of the world's transit systems require public subsidies to operate. The proportion of costs covered by fare revenue–known as the "farebox recovery ratio"–is currently 35% in the San Diego region, which is consistent with national trends. The remainder of transit funds comes from various public sources, ranging from federal grants to the local TransNet sales tax.

The amount of transit subsidy varies among the region's areas and types of transit services. In the densest areas of San Diego, bus and trolley routes enjoy high ridership and relatively low subsidies: In 2009, MTS buses required $1.43 in subsidy for each passenger boarding, while MTS trolleys' subsidy per passenger boarding was just $0.68.³¹ By contrast, local bus routes operated by NCTD–the main transit operator in the NCC–required a subsidy of $4.09 for each passenger boarding, reflecting the challenges of providing efficient transit service in large, low-density suburban areas. Subsidy per passenger on the COASTER was $6.32 in 2009, reflecting the higher cost of operating and maintaining commuter rail service compared to bus service in the corridor.

Transit services that require large public subsidies present a cost/benefit dilemma for regional decisionmakers. While there is a social benefit to providing transit access to everyone in the region, fiscal constraints mean that investing in areas with inherently low ridership effectively excludes investment in more cost-effective services in other areas. SANDAG has crafted a careful balance in the RTP that allocates transit throughout the urban area, ensures a fiscally sustainable transit system, and achieves regional transportation goals and state GHG mandates.

5.0 A Multi-Modal Vision for the North Coast Corridor

Today and into the future, the NCC is host to a wide variety of travelers, including residents, commuters, visitors and freight haulers. The number of these travelers has increased historically and is expected to continue to increase due to regional population growth and the continued importance of this corridor in the regional and interregional movement of people and goods. Expanding transit service in the NCC is part of the solution to accommodate travel growth and maintain mobility in and through the corridor. However, transit alone will not be sufficient to meet the diverse needs of travelers in the corridor. Only a balanced, integrated set of improvements to the transportation system can adequately address the diverse and growing travel demand in the NCC.

5.1 Corridor Objectives

The TREP/PWP identifies both transportation and coastal access goals for the NCC, which are summarized in Table 9 and Table 10. While transportation and coastal access goals are often viewed as representing incongruent purposes, the TREP/PWP integrates these goals so as to not only balance the various transportation needs of the corridor but to enhance multi-modal access throughout the corridor and thereby maintain and enhance, wherever feasible, access to the coast and upland recreation areas.

Table 9: Transportation Objectives for the North Coast Corridor

Table 10: Coastal Access Objectives for the North Coast Corridor

A key theme underlying most of the coastal objectives is ensuring coastal access, a goal that is directly supported many of the transportation objectives. The current levels of congestion on both I-5 and the local street network hinder coastal access regularly, and without capacity improvements, this condition will only worsen as the population grows. (Congestion in the NCC also increases emissions and reduces air quality in the coastal areas, an outcome contrary to coastal objectives.) COASTER rail services are similarly limited, with heavy train traffic along single-tracked segments slowing the service and limiting its frequency, thereby limiting the use of rail service as an alternative means of traveling to and through the corridor. Finally, the non-motorized links to coastal access and recreational areas, mostly bicycle and pedestrian trails, are also in need of improvement due to various gaps and safety deficiencies. Implementation of the TREP/PWP will address each of these accessibility issues by bringing a multi-modal network of improvements to the NCC.

The proposed transportation projects also contain ample funding for the restoration, enhancement, and mitigation of coastal resources that would otherwise be unavailable. The Resource Enhancement Program will bring these tangible improvements to the coastal zone as an integrated component of transportation infrastructure improvements and at an accelerated pace, enhancing both the natural environment and its accessibility to users. Thus, the forty-year vision and program of projects included in the TREP/PWP will help to further coastal policy goals and objectives.

5.2 Six-Point Alternative Mode Strategy

The I-5 Managed Lanes project is only one piece of the transportation puzzle to address growing travel demand, achieve regional mobility and quality of life goals, and enhance coastal access in the NCC. SANDAG and Caltrans have identified a Six-Point Alternative Mode Strategy for the NCC to ensure that there is an efficient, effective and sustainable multi-modal transportation system to provide access and mobility for all travelers and trips–and to ensure that both coastal and transportation goals are achieved. The six elements of this strategy are:

1. Interregional Rail Improvements

The primary interregional rail service in the NCC is Amtrak's Pacific Surfliner, in addition to one connection at Oceanside with the Los Angeles-based Metrolink commuter rail system. Coordination efforts are underway to increase interregional rail access by allowing both Metrolink and the COASTER to travel farther across county lines. This will provide new travel options for interregional travelers to access coastal communities.

In the shorter term, the transportation agencies are also working on better connection coordination between the arriving and departing COASTER and Metrolink trains at Oceanside. This not only includes efforts to better align the timing between the two services, but also cross-ticketing and marketing programs between COASTER, Metrolink, and Amtrak that will allow interregional travelers to purchase one fare to cover multiple services. Once enacted, these enhancements will allow for smoother transitions between the NCC rail services, resulting in better interregional travel times and more options for travelers.

2. Improvements to COASTER Rail Service, Stations, and Parking

Enhancements will allow for 54 COASTER trips daily (up from 22 in 2011), as well as providing additional capacity for intercity and freight rail services. Infrastructure improvements planned for the LOSSAN corridor include a mix of double-tracking, other track capacity enhancements, rail bridge replacement, pedestrian crossings, vehicle crossing improvements, parking expansion, new platform locations, and other station enhancements. Generally, track projects directly improve capacity and therefore improve reliability, reduce travel times and provide the opportunity for increased service levels. In addition to increased frequencies, COASTER trains will also have reduced travel times due to the improved infrastructure (as shown in Table 11). Other improvements may increase access to rail or improve the passenger experience, which may lead to increased ridership.

More than half of the entire San Diego coastal rail corridor is single-tracked, which creates chokepoints when trains traveling in opposite directions meet. These conflicts create most of the delay in the corridor and corridor-wide double-tracking is necessary to sufficiently increase capacity and service. The LOSSAN rail program in the NCC would include double-tracking projects ranging in length from 0.6 to 2.9 miles. Other track improvements similarly increase capacity and decrease conflicts, which improves reliability and decreases travel times. Station and parking improvements at corridor stations will also increase passenger capacity, enhance the quality of service, and improve access to coastal rail.

3. New Rapid Bus and BRT Services

The 2050 RTP includes a new all-day Rapid Bus route along Coast Highway from Oceanside to University City. Rapid Bus service provides higher speed, limited-stop service through the use of roadway priority treatments such as traffic signal priority, intersection queue jumps, and dedicated transit lanes. The planned service will operate at ten-minute frequencies all day, providing a higher-quality local transit option to complement the existing network of local bus routes in the corridor.³² This will increase regional mobility and access to coastal areas for residents and visitors alike.

In addition, the RTP includes a new "reverse commute" bus rapid transit (BRT) service on I-5 that serves the peak-period commute trip between the high-density Mid City residential area in central San Diego and the Palomar Airport Road business park in the NCC. Like the planned improvements to LOSSAN rail service, this new BRT line will help to relieve congestion and reserve capacity on I-5 for other users, including visitors and recreational travelers who are not easily served by transit. However, as with the express bus services currently operating on I-15, the implementation of BRT on I-5 is wholly dependent upon the construction of Managed Lanes.

4. Improvements to Local Bus Service

While the TREP/PWP does not directly include local bus service, the 2050 RTP includes an increased commitment of operating funds for local buses, both within the NCC and across the region. While many transit dollars are earmarked for the region's higher-density communities, NCTD will receive a generous share of operating funds to sustain and enhance its services in the NCC. Access to the COASTER remains a priority for both NCTD and MTS, and travelers can expect various enhancements to the seventeen local bus routes that serve the NCC's six COASTER stations. (See Appendix A for a graphical depiction of the existing COASTER-oriented services, including ridership and frequencies.) Future enhancements could include higher frequencies, extended operating hours, and other improvements. The RTP also includes specific funding to increase service frequencies to fifteen minutes or better in key bus corridors, but at this stage, it has not been determined how NCC routes may benefit from this augmentation.

5. Community Enhancement Projects for Bicycle and Pedestrian Trails

The 2050 RTP contains $2.6 billion for an Active Transportation Program that seeks to improve bicycle and pedestrian facilities across the region, including the NCC. Caltrans and SANDAG have worked with the corridor cities to identify enhancement opportunities that would benefit from simultaneous construction with I-5 and improve how the I-5 project interfaces with adjacent communities. These enhancements would make connections in the existing bicycle and pedestrian network, improve trails, and enhance other new and existing facilities. Improvements include trail connections, streetscape enhancements, trailheads, bicycle and pedestrian bridges, overpasses, underpasses, lagoon trails, and recreational staging areas.

Additionally, local roads cross I-5 at 37 locations within the corridor. Many of these crossings do not have a standard bicycle and pedestrian facilities and therefore do not facilitate non-motorized modes crossing the freeway. As over-crossings are rebuilt and under-crossings are widened to accommodate additional lanes on I-5, pedestrian and bicycle facilities will be upgraded. By addressing existing barriers to east-west pedestrian and bicycle travel, these enhanced crossings will improve access to community facilities, LOSSAN rail stations, and coastal resources.

6. I-5 Managed Lanes for Carpools, Vanpools, and Transit

To increase the capacity of I-5 in a way that moves people–not simply vehicles–more efficiently and effectively, SANDAG and Caltrans plan to construct two new Managed Lanes in each direction in the NCC. These new lanes would be reserved for three types of vehicles: high-occupancy vehicles (HOVs– carpools, and vanpools), transit vehicles, and toll-paying single-occupancy vehicles (SOVs). The HOVs and transit vehicles have priority in the lanes, meaning that SOVs would only be allowed to enter when there is excess capacity. The SOV access fee, posted at lane entrances and paid electronically via transponder, would vary based on real-time traffic conditions; as the Managed Lanes approach a congested state, the fee would increase to discourage SOVs from entry. With real-time monitoring of traffic conditions and these variable pricing methods, the Managed Lanes will be able to preserve free-flow speeds and reliable travel times, even as the rest of the highway becomes congested, providing unconstrained access to the coast and through the corridor for many travelers. A similar system has already been implemented successfully in San Diego's I-15 corridor.

During peak travel times, even if each HOV only contains two people, one Managed Lane will be able to carry roughly 70 percent more people than one general-purpose lane.³³ This confers a clear benefit over traditional highway designs by providing major capacity enhancements with a relatively minor footprint. While the region is hoping to realize a significant increase in the NCC's transit mode share, even in the most optimistic projections we know that the majority of future travel demand will still be placed on the highways. SANDAG's Managed Lanes strategy will go the farthest in helping the region accommodate the future demand on I-5 by getting the most person-carrying capacity out of highway expansion.

In addition, far from being an expansion that just suits the needs of drivers, the addition of Managed

Lanes also serve as an essential enabler of public transportation. By giving priority to buses and other HOVs, Managed Lanes make attractive public transit possible; because this new infrastructure will support reliable, congestion-free trips, I-5 will be able to accommodate transit services in the future as demands increase.

SANDAG promotes HOV travel through its iCommute program. The program assists commuters by providing free carpool and ride-matching services, a subsidized vanpool program, transit solutions, regional support for bicycling, the Guaranteed Ride Home program for students, and the SchoolPool carpooling program for parents. iCommute also provides free assistance to local businesses, helping them develop and implement customized employee commuter benefit programs that lower costs, increase productivity, and help the environment.

Table 11 shows corridor median travel times under current and future conditions during peak periods.

When I-5 is uncongested, it takes 23 minutes to traverse the 27-mile route from La Jolla Village Drive in San Diego to Harbor Drive in Oceanside. This same northbound trip currently takes 30 minutes during the PM peak period and is expected to take a congestion-ridden 70 minutes by 2030 without any improvements to the highway. Even with the planned improvements, travel time in 2030 is projected to be 45 minutes in the general-purpose lanes, indicating that the improvements will not even keep up with projected growth in demand (but will be vastly better than the No-Build condition). In the new Managed Lanes, however, PM peak travel would be nearly congestion-free, requiring just 28 minutes. In addition, planned enhancements to the LOSSAN rail corridor will allow the COASTER to make the same trip in 32 minutes in 2030, an improvement of five minutes over the No-Build scenario.

Table 11: Median Weekday Peak Travel Times (minutes), I-5 and COASTER from La Jolla Village Drive to Harbor Drive

Figure 10 is a graphical depiction of the travel times during the PM peak period in the northbound direction. (The planned improvements to I-5 are expressed in the figure as the "8+4" scenario.)

Table 12 depicts the types of travelers who will benefit from the planned transportation improvements, separated by each transportation facility in the NCC.

Table 12: Travelers Benefitting from Planned Transportation Improvements

5.3 Other Strategies to Minimize Highway Expansion

SANDAG and Caltrans understand that the region cannot completely build its way out of congestion, and they have therefore adopted several strategies to focus on managing demand. Population and travel demand will continue to grow in the NCC with or without highway or transit improvements, and SANDAG's goal is to accommodate the growth in the most efficient way possible, minimizing costs as well as environmental impacts.

I-5 was constructed in the 1960s and 1970s. In the past forty years, travel demand in the NCC has increased significantly, but capacity improvements on I-5 have been limited and the footprint of the freeway has changed very little. Improvements to I-5 in the NCC have included the interchange with the I-805 merge, the addition of HOV lanes in the southern portion of the corridor, and operational improvements such as variable message signs and ramp meters.³⁴ In the absence of major highway expansion in the corridor over the past forty years, the region has focused on a variety of strategies that work together to manage the growth in demand and address the multiple needs of travelers. Without these ongoing strategies, as many as sixteen total lanes of the freeway–double the existing I-5 footprint– would be required to meet future forecasted travel demand.³⁵ Instead, the past and future approach include the following major components:

Transportation Demand Management (TDM)

TDM strategies have been and will continue to be a critical element for reducing travel demand in the corridor by encouraging the use of the bus, carpooling, and other alternative modes. TDM strategies take advantage of and help build a customer base for alternative modes by removing obstacles and providing information and incentives to travelers to make it easy to shift from single-occupant driving, reduce trips, or reduce travel at the most congested times. In addition to the ride-matching services, vanpool subsidies, and other incentives offered through SANDAG's iCommute program, TDM strategies may include financial assistance from employers for taking transit, allowing alternative work schedules (i.e., "flex time"), and providing opportunities for teleworking from home.

Transportation Systems Management (TSM) and Operational Improvements

TSM is a strategy to increase highway capacity without major capital investment, by enacting various operational improvements that increase system efficiency. These include the construction of new auxiliary lanes on the outside of the freeway that will connect on- and off-ramps and allow for acceleration, deceleration, and merging–often the causes of traffic bottlenecks and congestion. Other

improvements include Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) features, such as real-time information for drivers that allow them to make informed decisions on travel routes, and corridor-wide ramp metering to help regulate the flow of traffic. Various corridor interchange improvements help eliminate or minimize bottlenecks in the transportation system. Additional detection, monitoring, and communications infrastructure will allow for incident response and active management of the highway.

6.0 Transportation Objectives: Mobility, Efficiency, & Preservation

Broadly speaking, the transportation objectives identified in Section 5 are aimed at increasing regional mobility in ways that respect both the environmental and fiscal implications of transportation projects. The Six-Point Alternative Mode Strategy for the NCC is an embodiment of those objectives, with each element of the strategy contributing to the maintenance of an effective and balanced transportation system in the NCC.

Congestion Reduction

As discussed in Section 3, the NCC's transportation facilities today are plagued by congestion. From the peak-period backups along I-5 to the single-track delays on the LOSSAN rail corridor, the NCC represents a bottleneck not just for the San Diego region, but also for the state and national transportation systems. Regular periods of congestion directly result in lost time–and lost money and access–for residents, commuters, and visitors. Bottlenecks on the highway and rail corridors also impede the efficient movement of goods in and through the region, including the economically vital connections to Mexico and the Port of San Diego, resulting in longer shipping times, higher product costs, and economic losses for the entire society. On I-5, these bottlenecks also spill into the local road network in the form of "cut-through" traffic, which congests local communities. Finally, congestion diminishes air quality throughout the corridor as vehicles are forced to operate at inefficient speeds in stop-and-start settings.

With the population growing and travel demand increasing even more rapidly, the future promises even greater levels of congestion in the NCC unless capacity improvements are made. The Six-Point Alternative Mode Strategy discussed in Section 5 outlines a wide range of multi-modal improvements planned throughout the corridor to address the growing travel demand. The addition of Managed Lanes to I-5 is one element of this solution, which will expand the highway's capacity for high-occupancy and transit vehicles. But the solution also includes LOSSAN double-tracking, COASTER service improvements, new Rapid Bus and BRT services, enhanced local bus service, and better facilities for bicycles and pedestrians. Each improvement is aimed at increasing capacity in some way and, taken together, they represent a balanced approach to addressing the mobility and access problem. The fulfillment of the PWP's multi-modal transportation vision will go a long way toward increasing corridor capacity, decreasing congestion, and providing faster, more reliable travel choices for the residents, visitors and businesses who use the NCC's transportation system to access homes, jobs, shopping, recreational venues, and coastal resources.

Environmental Protection and Enhancement

While the LOSSAN rail improvements and the addition of Managed Lanes to I-5 will expand the transportation footprint within the coastal zone, SANDAG has selected the smallest-footprint highway alternative (8+4 with buffer) among the highway expansion options considered for the corridor. Further, the concurrent Resource Enhancement Program, which is tied to the implementation of the corridor transportation projects, ensures that significant contributions are made to the enhancement and protection of the NCC's environmental resources. The package of improvements planned for the NCC includes not just highway, rail, bicycle, and pedestrian enhancements, but also wetland restoration and creation, lagoon bridge lengthening, and the improvement of coastal trails and habitat areas. By taking advantage of funding that would otherwise be unavailable, the Resource Enhancement Program ensures that the NCC's natural environment will benefit from the planned transportation improvements.

The PWP's multi-modal vision will also reap environmental benefits through improved air quality, which will result from increased high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) travel as well as fewer vehicles operating in the inefficient, stop-and-start patterns of congestion. SANDAG is mandated by state law to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, and the agency plans to achieve this through increases in both HOV travel and transit ridership. The PWP's investments in Managed Lanes, LOSSAN rail improvements, and transit service enhancements directly contribute to these objectives and are key components of SANDAG's overall strategy to meet the legal mandate.

Transportation Flexibility

While population growth in the NCC is expected over the next 40 years, other unforeseen changes may also occur that alter the mobility needs of the corridor's residents and visitors. Whether it is variations in travel patterns, modifications to land use policy, or advancements in technology, the transportation system should be equipped to respond to these changes as they happen. Caltrans and SANDAG understand that the current high level of demand for automobile travel may not persist forever– particularly as regional congestion and fuel costs increase–and this is why they have chosen a program of multi-modal improvements for the NCC.

The Managed Lanes on I-5, for example, will not just allow more efficient automobile travel in the corridor, but will also serve as an essential enabler of future transit services, by providing a congestion-free path for express buses or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). The ability to manage these new highway lanes to meet changing travel behavior and demand–by varying tolls, changing vehicle occupancy requirements, or even creating a truck route during certain times of day–guarantees that there will always be free-flow access to coastal resources and communities. The RTP already includes plans for a reverse-commute BRT that will utilize I-5, traveling from San Diego's Mid-City neighborhoods north to the employment centers near Palomar Airport Road in Carlsbad. While the I-5 peak-period BRT (traveling south in the morning and north in the afternoon) did not perform well enough in model projections to be included in the current RTP, the existence of Managed Lanes will allow this service to be added in the future when demands dictate. Similarly, the planned LOSSAN rail enhancements will allow for much greater capacity on the rail corridor than is needed today, ensuring that the rail infrastructure will be able to accommodate growth in coastal rail access demands for many decades into the future.

Value Maximization

The competing demands for the region's limited transportation funds require SANDAG to select projects using a rigorous evaluation of goals, priorities, and projections during the regional planning process. As discussed in Section 4, the 2050 Regional Transportation Plan seeks to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of transportation investments, and its prioritization of projects reflects this goal. While a basic level of funding is provided to all areas, the RTP's major investments are focused in places where they are most likely to succeed; in the denser urban areas of the region, this often means a greater emphasis on transit services, while in the outlying, more suburban areas this might mean a higher proportion of new highway projects or improved local arterials.

The PWP includes a combination of transportation investments that improve the transportation system's efficiency by favoring the implementation of high-capacity transit and highway facilities over expansion for single-occupancy autos. And because these facilities will offer fast and reliable travel choices for a variety of travelers to, through, and within the NCC, they are projected to attract sufficient use to maximize the value of the investments. While a transportation "wish list" for the NCC–one that is unconstrained by fiscal or legislative requirements–might contain even larger investments in transit, as discussed in Section 3, the corridor's demographic, employment, land use, geography, and travel pattern characteristics limit the viability of more significant investments in transit. The PWP projects will greatly improve corridor mobility and access while balancing both the corridor and regional need to maximize the benefits per dollar spent.

Coastal Access

NCC's transportation system is the gateway to the corridor's rich coastal resources, which are enjoyed by millions of residents and visitors each year. Current levels of congestion, which persist on weekends as well as weekdays, directly impede public access to these coastal areas and the neighboring communities. By providing increased mobility in the NCC, the improvements identified in the PWP–not just highway and rail enhancements, but also increased bicycle and pedestrian connections–will provide better, faster and more reliable access to the coast, improving local quality of life and simultaneously fulfilling the Coastal Act mandate to preserve coastal access. The issues surrounding coastal access and the provisions of the Coastal Act are discussed in greater detail in Section 7.

Integration into Larger System

The NCC is not an isolated corridor, but rather one piece in a much larger network of regional, state, and national transportation facilities. As a federally designated "Corridor of the Future," I-5 is an economically significant resource that plays an important role in the movement of people and goods. Similarly, LOSSAN is the nation's second-busiest passenger rail corridor as well as a significant freight facility. Considering the roles that these NCC facilities play in the national economy, it is clear that local congestion is not simply a local problem; such deficiencies create impacts that are felt well beyond the San Diego region.

It is therefore critical to ensure that the NCC's transportation infrastructure is maintained as an effective link in the national transportation system. The facilities must minimize congestion, remain in good repair, and take advantage of technological and operational advancements to increase efficiency. The PWP accomplishes these goals by providing NCC facilities with their first major overhaul in decades, expanding the capacity of both I-5 and LOSSAN to accommodate new demand. In addition, the PWP calls for a wide range of repairs and enhancements–including grade separations, signal improvements, direct access ramps, and auxiliary lanes–that will increase throughput efficiency and help preserve the facilities for the long term. This will allow the NCC to maintain its crucial role as an important link in the larger transportation network and ensure that degradation of NCC transportation facilities does not become the weak link in regional and interregional access to the coast.

Movement of People Rather than Vehicles

The efficiency of a transportation system can be measured by the mobility benefits it provides in relation to its costs. Because each vehicle on a highway contributes to congestion, maximum efficiency is achieved when every vehicle is carrying the greatest amount of people or goods possible. While this is not a realistic scenario for all travelers–circumstances often require travel in single-occupancy vehicles–high-occupancy travel is still something that can be encouraged with incentives. Managed Lanes are one such incentive, as they offer travelers a choice: Either travel alone and risk delays, or carpool and bypass congestion. It is in this way that Managed Lanes prioritize the movement of people over the movement of vehicles, thus achieving both better mobility, and higher capacity, per dollar, spent. As noted in Section 5, even if each HOV only contains two people, one Managed Lane is able to carry roughly 70 percent more people than one general-purpose lane during peak conditions.³⁶ This confers a clear benefit to the region by achieving greater mobility outcomes per dollar spent than traditional, general-purpose highway expansion. Transit investments bring similar benefits by encouraging travelers to ride in high-occupancy trains or buses when it fits their travel needs. By focusing investments in the NCC on high-occupancy transit and Managed Lane facilities, the PWP projects will enable more efficient coastal access for many more people well into the future than would otherwise be possible under current conditions.

Prioritizing the movement of people over vehicles also contributes to environmental goals, since high-occupancy travel produces fewer greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita than single-occupancy trips. SANDAG is required by state law to meet GHG reduction targets, and the addition of Managed Lanes to regional highways is a key component of the agency's strategy to achieve this. Similarly, the planned enhancements to the LOSSAN rail corridor will reap both mobility and environmental benefits, by providing a better level of service that will encourage some travelers to ride the COASTER instead of driving alone. The efficient movement of people in the coastal corridor will help enhance air quality along the coast and positively contribute to regional GHG reductions.

7.0 Coastal Act Policies: Public Access, Recreation & Transportation

The coastal access and recreation policies of the Coastal Act mandate that maximum public access and recreational opportunities in the Coastal Zone be provided for all people, consistent with the need to protect public safety, private property and natural resources. These policies further require public facilities to be provided throughout an area to mitigate impacts of overcrowding or overuse by the public of any single area, that low-cost visitor-serving and recreational facilities be protected, encouraged, and where feasible, provided, and that upland areas necessary to support coastal recreational uses, be reserved for such uses, where feasible.

7.1 Traffic Congestion Reduction

The Coastal Commission Public Access Action Plan recognizes roadway congestion as one of the greatest impediments to public access in coastal areas and specifically notes that, among other things, traffic congestion and poor traffic circulation are significant problems where residents and visitors compete to use the same transportation system. As discussed in Section 2.0, travel demand and traffic congestion in the NCC is driven not only by residents and visitors but by a wide variety of travelers with a range of needs that require an array of transportation solutions. However, when considering the unique needs and travel patterns of visitors and recreational travelers in the corridor which, as discussed in Section 2.2, are not easily served with transit, the region's past and continuing efforts to reduce traffic congestion and maintain acceptable transportation services on I-5 and local transportation arterials are critical elements to protecting public access to recreational opportunities along the San Diego County coastline.

As the primary means for the public to reach shoreline access points and upland recreational destinations in the NCC, I-5 serves as the gateway to the entire San Diego coastal area and provides a unique scenic, recreational traveling experience. As travel demand in the I-5 highway corridor continues to increase, so does the existing coastal access impediment of traffic congestion. Congestion on I-5 also results in increased congestion on local arterial street networks, when frustrated travelers exit the congested highway in search of alternate routes, further restricting mobility and impeding access to coastal resources along local transportation corridors.

The TREP/PWP recognizes that constructing new transportation corridors or new general-purpose lanes to meet travel demand would not solve the highway capacity deficiency without affecting adjacent communities, lagoons and habitat areas. To address the highway capacity deficiency in the corridor in a way that would provide the most benefit to coastal access and natural resources while meeting regional travel demand, TREP/PWP facility improvements are planned to accommodate more travelers (i.e., more people), more efficiently, and with minimal facility expansion (footprint) when compared to other transportation alternatives.

To increase capacity and reduce congestion on I-5, proposed TREP/PWP improvements focus on HOV and Managed Lanes, which will provide significantly more person-carrying capacity per lane than a general-purpose lane (carrying roughly 70 percent more people than one general-purpose lane) by promoting carpool, vanpool, and other transit alternatives to SOVs in the corridor. In addition, as the primary means for the public to reach shoreline access points and upland recreational areas in the NCC, the proposed high occupancy and Managed Lanes will specifically serve the visitor and recreational travelers in the NCC, which constitute up to 50 percent of weekend HOV traffic on some sections of I-5.

Toll-paying SOVs would be permitted to access Managed Lanes only when capacity exists, generating revenue to fund corridor transit operations and further reducing overall congestion on the highway for all users at appropriate times. However, the Managed Lanes strategy will preserve free-flow speeds and reliable travel times as the rest of the highway lanes become congested, providing unconstrained access to the coast for priority HOV and transit users. In addition to prioritizing visitor and recreational methods of travel on I-5, reduced traffic congestion on I-5 will alleviate the pressure of local communities to address and accommodate cut-through traffic on Coast Highway and other arterial streets that may otherwise be impacted as travelers search for alternate routes to a congested highway. Maintaining access along the I-5 corridor will also serve to maintain access along the various local coastal transportation corridors in the NCC, ensuring spill-over travel demand from I-5 does not impact local communities or precipitate improvements on local arterials which could impact the NCC's sensitive coastal resources.

Managed Lanes will accommodate future demand on I-5 by getting the most person-carrying capacity out of the least amount of highway footprint expansion, thereby reducing overall congestion on I-5 for all users, protecting and facilitating public access, and minimizing impacts to adjacent communities and sensitive coastal resource. Finally, as discussed further below, I-5 Managed Lanes will make possible new and expanded public transportation opportunities in the NCC by prioritizing and ensuring reliable travel for buses and other HOVs, and I-5 infrastructure improvements will provide new opportunities to enhance pedestrian and bicycle coastal access facilities, all of which will provide alternative means of coastal access in the NCC and further reduce demand on I-5.

7.2 Alternative Transportation Options

The lack of adequate transit service and other alternative transportation modes to access the beach and upland coastal recreation areas is also a recognized impediment to public access. Directly linked to the region's objectives to provide transportation flexibility and ensure the movement of people rather than vehicles are Coastal Act policies which direct protection and enhancement of public access and recreation opportunities by (1) facilitating the provision or extension of transit service, (2) providing non-automobile circulation, (3) providing adequate parking facilities or serving new development with public transportation, and (4) assuring the potential for public transit for high intensity uses.

In addition, the Coastal Act recognizes the benefits of providing transportation choices for all people to not only coastal public access and recreation, but also as a means of reducing vehicle miles traveled, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curtailing the effects of global climate change. While the implementation of Coastal Act policies is limited to addressing development activities affecting coastal resources in the Coastal Zone, climate change is a coastal resource issue driven by land use and transportation activities that extend well beyond the boundaries of the NCC and the region. In this regard, Coastal Act policies which address reducing vehicle miles traveled and energy consumption through provision of transit in the Coastal Zone are supported by the region's transportation objectives to ensure the NCC's transit-focused transportation system is effectively integrated into the regional, state, and national system, and that transportation investments in the NCC complement the region's commitment to providing the greatest possible mobility project benefits per investment. Investing available funds in transportation improvements that will support transportation solutions across jurisdictional boundaries, and which will facilitate smart growth practices that maximize mobility at the regional level, is the best means of reducing vehicle miles traveled and energy consumption in the region to help achieve state-mandated GHG reductions, and thus support efforts to address the effects of global climate change on coastal resources.

Rail

As described in Section 3.0, passenger rail services along the LOSSAN rail corridor are currently constrained by infrastructure that is undersized for the volumes of traffic it accommodates. Currently, about half of the 27-mile rail corridor consists of single track, which greatly constrains the movement of trains through the corridor, causing other trains to stack at each end of single track, thus resulting in delays and reducing the attractiveness of rail as a travel mode choice and as an alternative means of access to coastal resources. Since travel time and reliability are among the most important factors in the public's choice of transportation modes, longer and uncertain travel times currently make rail a less-attractive travel option in the NCC.

Rail improvements that increase capacity, reduce travel time, increase reliability, and provide new service area opportunities, are readily recognized as major contributors to protecting and enhancing access to the coast. Overall improvement of rail service is expected to attract more users. While new rail customers will certainly include some visitors and recreationists accessing coastal destinations, Section 2.2 explains the majority of new users are expected to consist of commuters and longer-distance travelers with predictable trips. As these customers are most effectively served by transit in the NCC, planned enhancements to the NCC rail corridor will increase the transit mode share for commuters and longer-distance travelers, thus relieving congestion and reserving capacity on I-5 for other users, including visitors and recreational travelers which are not easily served with transit and rely primarily on I-5 to access the San Diego coastline.

Access to rail stations is another component of ensuring maximum use of rail service to meet the NCC's travel demands. As discussed in Section 3.2, approximately 80% of NCC COASTER commuters arrive at the station by car. Although driving and parking are the primary means of accessing the LOSSAN rail corridor, parking availability is constrained at stations. On average, all of the station parking lots, except Oceanside, are at or exceed, capacity by 8:00 a.m., thereby inhibiting many potential passengers from using rail corridor services.

Proposed TREP/PWP improvements for the LOSSAN corridor would contribute substantially to enhancing mobility throughout the NCC by increasing and improving rail service, providing new rail service at Del Mar Fairgrounds, and supplementing parking supply at rail stations for new customers. The Del Mar platform–currently planned to operate only seasonally–would provide new access opportunities to the beach, San Dieguito River Park, and Del Mar Racetrack and Fairgrounds, one of the region's most popular tourist destinations. Planned access improvements to rail stations also include pedestrian and bicycle access. Opportunities to overcome pedestrian and bike access impediments to transit stations and coastal activity centers are the subject of a focused study and will be presented separately.

BRT, Rapid Bus and Ride-Share

Traffic congestion on I-5 presently discourages many potential bus transit and ride-share options as these modes of travel are subject to the same traffic congestion that SOVs experience on freeway main lanes. As highway deficiencies associated with increased travel times and reductions in reliability continue to worsen, these alternative modes of transportation become significantly less desirable and, especially with BRT, infeasible.

The addition of Managed Lanes for I-5 will serve as an essential enabler of public transportation. Planned improvements will provide incentives for people to shift from SOV to public transit and ridesharing where these vehicles would have direct access to the uncongested HOV/ Managed Lanes where reduced travel times and reliability are assured.

The NCC currently does not have BRT or Rapid Bus service. Implementation of these types of transit improvements is planned in the corridor over the next forty years, with successful BRT wholly dependent on the implementation of the I-5 Managed Lanes. The BRT planned for the I-5 Managed Lanes targets the peak-period commute trip between the high-density Mid City residential area in central San Diego and the Palomar Airport Road business park in the NCC. As with planned rail service improvements, BRT will serve to relieve congestion and reserve capacity on I-5 for other users, including visitors and recreational travelers which are not easily served with transit. Rapid Bus service is planned for Coast Highway through the NCC. The planned service will provide a higher-quality local transit option to complement the existing network of local bus routes in the corridor, further increasing regional mobility and alternative access to coastal areas for residents and visitors alike.

The region's Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies have been and will continue to be another critical element for increasing transit and reducing travel demand in the corridor by encouraging the use of the bus, carpooling, and other alternative modes. In addition to offering ride-matching services, vanpool subsidies, and other incentives offered through SANDAG's iCommute program, TDM strategies may include financial assistance from employers for taking transit, allowing alternative work schedules (i.e., "flex time"), and providing opportunities for teleworking from home. I-5 Managed Lanes is a necessary element to successfully implementing many TDM strategies, particularly those focused on shifting SOV travelers to the bus, vanpool and carpooling. When implemented together, Managed Lanes and TDM strategies will work to remove obstacles and provide incentives to travelers to make the shift from single-occupant driving, thereby reducing trips and congestion on I-5.

Future Transit for High-Intensity Uses

Section 6.0 describes the inherent limitations to the effectiveness of transit alone to meet future travel demand in the NCC, which is based less on insufficient transit service and more on the physical arrangement of the corridor's employment, land use, and population patterns. Nonetheless, the region is aggressively planning to accommodate future population growth while reducing travel demand through the provision of transit for the benefit of all who live, work and recreate in the NCC.

To accommodate projected population growth, SANDAG and local governments have implemented a "Smart Growth" land-use strategy that seeks to increase population density in specific areas, reduce vehicle miles traveled, and curb greenhouse gas emissions. "Smart Growth" policies encourage transit-friendly development patterns by concentrating development in areas with sufficient public services and promoting more trips by foot, bike, and transit, with correspondingly less reliance on the automobile. The NCC contains over 15 of these Smart Growth opportunity areas, the majority of which are located in community cores near COASTER and SPRINTER transit stations.

Planned "Smart Growth" areas in the NCC will go a long way toward concentrating populations near rail stations but will be unable to transform the existing, much more far-reaching land use patterns into a broader transit-supportive environment, which would require a tripling of residential densities and redeveloping communities throughout the NCC and Coastal Zone with more walkable, grid-like, better connected local street networks. However, "Smart Growth" is the most sustainable means of accommodating future growth in the NCC, and the 2050 RTP includes significant investment in LOSSAN rail, BRT, Rapid Bus, and local bus service in the corridor to accommodate this growth near stations and along transit routes with a goal of increasing the transit peak-period commute mode share from 2-3% to 10-15% (over a 400% gain from 2010), an ambitious target given the NCC's inherent limitations to transit effectiveness.

The proposed TREP/PWP includes transportation and transit infrastructure and service improvements intended to specifically serve planned "Smart Growth" areas to help avoid increased traffic congestion, reduced mobility, and a deteriorating quality of life. By planning for higher-density growth in the already developed corridor, implementing improvements to increase ridership on the existing LOSSAN rail corridor, and adding I-5 Managed Lanes that encourage HOVs and transit, the region will encourage concentrated growth patterns in which travel demand can be more readily accommodated.

Parking and Public Transportation

Adequate parking facilities in coastal areas necessary to serve residents, commercial uses and visitors who travel by car is an important variable that influences public access and recreation opportunities in the Coastal Zone. Where parking is not feasible, substitute means of access such as public transportation, pedestrian and biking facilities are necessary to access the coast. The TREP/PWP includes implementation of various public transportation service improvements to protect and enhance public access in the NCC, including rail, BRT and rapid bus.

Providing access to transit, supported by ample parking resources, walking and bike facilities is an important component of ensuring maximum use of rail service to meet the NCC's various travel demands and coastal access needs. In addition, as the majority of rail stations in the NCC are located just blocks from the beach, constrained parking resources have the potential to result in overflow parking by train passengers onto adjacent streets, which could displace parking resources used by people to access the coast by automobile. However, where adequate parking supply does occur, these parking resources could also be used to support access to nearby beaches and recreation areas.

Proposed TREP/PWP improvements include expanding parking areas at the corridor's transit stations, which would support passenger rail service and reduce the possibility of conflicts between rail passenger and coastal access parking resources on adjacent streets.

Non-Automobile Circulation and Enhancement of Recreational Facilities

The Coastal Act recognizes the necessity and benefit of providing varied transportation choices for all people, including alternative transportation modes that are not reliant on the automobile. These choices include not only transit but also active transportation modes such as walking and biking. Well planned, non-motorized transportation networks can bridge the gap between origins or destinations and the transit system, addressing the classic "last mile" problem for transit users. In addition, pedestrian and bike facilities create attractive transportation links between land uses that draw travelers out of their automobiles when making short, local trips and when seeking access to coastal resources. Providing pedestrian and bicycle access to the shoreline and upland recreation areas is one of the highest priorities of the Coastal Act.

The Coastal Rail Trail provides coastal access to the length of the NCC primarily on a bicycle facility. The California Coastal Trail also provides coastal access to the length of the NCC along various shorelines and inland routes. Both of these regionally significant trails are developed to varying levels, with east-west access to the trail corridors occurring along the primary and secondary bicycle and pedestrian routes that cross over the I-5 and LOSSAN corridors. The east-west access routes are limited and contain gaps due to topographical, transportation facility, and environmental barriers. Many bicycle and pedestrian routes traverse highway overpasses and rail crossings where facilities narrow and the quality degrades. Local roads cross I-5 in the east-west direction 37 times in the corridor, and most of these are nonstandard bicycle and pedestrian crossings. As a result, it is difficult to make local trips and gain access to the shoreline and regionally significant coastal trails using these bicycle and pedestrian routes.

A fundamental element of the TREP/PWP is that it will improve bicycle and pedestrian routes and trails which would enhance the network and provide access to the NCC's transit stations, beaches, lagoons, open spaces, and coastal communities. Existing fragmented access routes and trails of the network would be upgraded and completed, eliminating barriers and gaps to provide safe, non-automobile circulation to and from coastal recreation areas while creating new recreational opportunities.

Beneficial impacts on coastal access and recreation would result from highway improvements that include reconstructing under- and overpasses to better connect and improve bicycle and pedestrian access routes to the coast. These improvements would address travel-user separations to provide a more comfortable travel environment for pedestrians and bicyclists to further encourage these modes of travel across I-5 between inland and coastal areas, and in certain instances, would provide a connection to regional corridor Class I and Class II bicycle facilities accessed throughout the NCC. These improvements would improve travel choices and substantially enhance recreational opportunities in the corridor by completing linkages between communities, inland and coastal areas, and providing access opportunities to the NCC's regionally significant natural resource and recreation areas. Planned access improvements to rail stations also include the elimination of pedestrian and bicycle access barriers and the inclusion of other facility enhancements.

The NCC's new and enhanced access routes across lagoons would be similarly integrated into highway improvements. These access improvements would serve to meet a primary goal articulated in the state-mandated, Coastal Commission-supported Completing the California Coastal Trail report: "Create linkages to other trail systems and units of the State Park system, and use the Coastal Trail system to increase accessibility to coastal resources from urban population centers."³⁷ TREP/PWP implementation would provide and connect several threads within the coastal trail system between inland and coastal communities to access the shoreline, lagoons and upland recreation, thus helping to achieve the goals of the California Coastal Trail.

Considering the significant alternative transportation options planned for the NCC, the TREP/PWP would maximize public access recreation opportunities throughout the corridor consistent with public safety needs by:

• Improving public transportation infrastructure to support more frequent, attractive, and reliable rail, BRT and rapid bus service, resulting in increased transit ridership and reduced traffic congestion that would otherwise adversely affect the ability of the public to reach the coast along this primary coastal access corridor.
• Improving and integrating transit services with other non-automobile modes of travel within the corridor to increase ridership and reduce traffic congestion that would otherwise adversely affect public coastal access.
• Facilitating and encouraging non-automobile transportation with new and improved multimodal improvements that would provide access to the coast and recreation areas with alternative modes of transportation (trails, bike paths, and transit). The TREP/PWP projects will add and improve sidewalks and bicycle lanes at highway and rail crossings throughout NCC communities, providing access to coastal amenities including the Coast Highway, the Coastal Rail Trail, and the California Coastal Trail. This will effectively eliminate bicycle and pedestrian barriers, and provide enhanced connections with public transit centers, thereby promoting access to transit.
• Creating and enhancing pedestrian access to other natural resources including lagoons and adjacent upland areas via trail and bicycle improvements throughout the corridor.

8.0 Conclusion

The multi-modal projects planned in the TREP/PWP aim to achieve both transportation and coastal goals in the North Coast Corridor. The NCC will get necessary infrastructure improvements–not just for roads and highways, but also for transit, bicycle, and pedestrian facilities–that will allow it to accommodate substantial future growth. Community enhancement projects will restore and preserve vital coastal areas, taking advantage of funding that would otherwise be unavailable. Most importantly, increased mobility throughout the NCC will increase coastal access for both residents and visitors.

The TREP/PWP is only one part of a larger planning framework for the San Diego region. Balancing the needs of the region against the dual constraints of scarce funding and environmental mandates, SANDAG has devised a Regional Transportation Plan that invests $112 billion in mobility solutions through 2050. The NCC will benefit from LOSSAN rail corridor expansion, and new Rapid Bus and BRT services that will provide significant increases in capacity and travel options for corridor commuters, residents and visitors. The corridor's land-use patterns and regional employment concentrations, as well as the wide diversity of travelers, trip purposes, and origins/destinations, require a multi-modal solution.

The addition of Managed Lanes to I-5 is a key element of this multi-modal solution to meet future demand in the NCC. The Managed Lanes represent the smallest expansion option for I-5 considered by SANDAG during the environmental review process, and they achieve the most efficient capacity increase by prioritizing the movement of people in the NCC, rather than simply moving vehicles. Only this kind of balanced, integrated, multi-modal approach in the North Coast Corridor can provide the range of transportation options necessary to meet the varied travel and mobility needs in the San Diego region.

Appendix A: NCC Bus and Rail Service Map

Appendix B: SANDAG Smart Growth Concept Map

Appendix C: Regional Employment Share by Community and City, 2008 and 2050

Communities with at least one percent of regional employment in 2008 and/or 2050 are included in the table. All other communities not listed have less than one percent of regional employment in 2008 and/or 2050. Most communities are projected to lose employment share by 2050.

Appendix D: 2050 RTP Housing Density Maps

(Separate Attachment from 2050 RTP)

Notes

1. TREP/PWP Chapter 3.
2. U.S. Department of Transportation Press Release, September 10, 2007.
3. Draft 2050 Regional Transportation Plan, Technical Appendix 7, p. 7-19.
4. TREP/PWP Chapter 2B, pg 2-24.
5. San Diego Convention and Visitors Bureau, 2006 Visitors Profile Study (Table 3-6 in Draft TREP/PWP).
6. Compiled from press releases by Legoland, San Diego County Fair, and Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.
7. TREP/PWP Chapter 2, pg. 2-25.
8. Draft 2050 RTP, page 6-36.
9. San Diego and Imperial Valley Gateway Study: Comprehensive Freight Gateway Study. March 2010.
10. Model data from Caltrans, furnished by Maurice Eaton Sep 29, 2011.
11. TREP/PWP Chapter 2, pg. 2-24.
12. TREP/PWP Chapter 3, pg. 3-4.
13. TREP/PWP Chapter 2B, pg. 2-24.
14. Ewing, Reid. 1996. Best Development Practices. Chicago: Planners Press.
15. SANDAG Series 12 Regional Growth Forecast/Urban Area Transit Strategy Policy Paper, September 2010.
16. SANDAG (Kim Kawada/Dave Schumacher/Danny Veeh); April 2011.
17. 47,000 trips/12 hours a day = 3900 trips/hour. A freeway lane is at capacity at approximately 2000 trips/hour.
18. SANDAG 2009 Onboard COASTER Station Access Survey.
19. I-5 North Coast Corridor System Management Plan (CSMP), August 2010, Page 5-38.
20. SANDAG (Tom King); November 2011.
21. Metropolitan Transit Development Board (MTDB) TransitWorks Strategic Plan Report, January 2001.
22. National Transit Database. MTS and NCTD Profiles.
23. Draft 2050 Regional Transportation Plan, Table 2.1.
24. 2050 Regional Transportation Plan, Chapter 3.
25. TREP/PWP Chapter 2B, pg. 2-24.
26. The CARB-mandated GHG reduction targets apply only to cars and light trucks during weekday travel, using 2005 as the base year. While reductions are desired for all vehicle classes, only this single class is included in the performance measure.
27. U.S. Census American Community Survey, 2009.
28. For consistency in Table 8, this figure only includes the city of San Diego. As noted above, SANDAG data breaks this down further, revealing a 2-3% transit mode share for the entire San Diego region, and a 5% transit mode share for the SANDAG-defined urban area.
29. SANDAG 2050 Regional Transportation Plan, Table 5-3.
30. SANDAG Staff (Heather Adamson), October 2011.
31. SANDAG Coordinated Plan (2010-2014), Technical Appendix C, Pages C-3 – C-12.
32. 2050 RTP, Table 6.2
33. Managed Lane capacity is generally 1700 vehicles/hour * 2 people/vehicle = 3400 people/hour. General-purpose lane capacity is generally 2000 vehicles/hour * 1 person/vehicle = 2000 people/hour. 3400/2000 = 170%.
34. CSMP, Chapter 2, pg. 2-5, 2-6.
35. Caltrans staff estimate.
36. Managed Lane capacity is generally 1700 vehicles/hour * 2 people/vehicle = 3400 people/hour. General-purpose lane capacity is generally 2000 vehicles/hour * 1 person/vehicle = 2000 people/hour. 3400/2000 = 170%.
37. California State Coastal Conservancy.